Bush Unlikely to Attack
Despite the war talk, Bush is unlikely to attack Iraq
by Robert A.
Political reality
George W. Bush probably won't order a military attack on Iraq in the near
future because Karl Rove is unlikely to let him. If the president's top
political adviser is doing his job, he should point out the distinct
possibility that an unsuccessful - or a slow and costly - attack can end a
presidency. Absent an imminent danger to the United States, the political
danger to the administration is likely to prevail.
It is said that Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld, and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice are pushing, and
that most Pentagon generals and Secretary of State Colin Powell are holding
back.
The real political game, in any case, is being played by non-movement
conservatives like retiring House Republican Majority Leader Richard Armey
and Republican Senators Richard Lugar and Chuck Hegel, who oppose
precipitate action. Most Democrats are positioning themselves to join in the
patriotic fervor if the attack is mounted, while preserving their capability
to take advantage if it bogs down. Congressional hawks in both parties have
been quiet lately.
Few politicians are pure cynics. In matters of deep national interest at
least, they pay attention to policy arguments. In this case the movement
conservatives have not convinced them to override their natural caution. The
movement's foreign policy ideology centers on the need for the United States
to free itself of the timid old constraints and strike alone in times of
high danger, exemplified by Iraq's drive to build weapons of mass
destruction. Richard Perle says: "Our European allies are just not relevant
to this. [Aside from Britain], the rest of the Europeans prefer to look the
other way or cut deals with Saddam or buy him off in various ways."
They are right - the United States can act without Europe, although that is
less for ideological reasons than because there is no Europe. Fifteen
sovereignties cannot a foreign or military policy make, even though, were
they to federate into one sovereignty, they could exert power equal to that
of the United States.
Reality is to the east. A successful U.S. attack on Iraq - with or without
European allies - would require some support from within the region. And
without a solution in Israel and Palestine, or at least a softening of
America's unqualified support for Ariel Sharon, that is unlikely to happen.
In any case, the cascade of leaks from the Pentagon makes clear the military
establishment's doubts about any easy victory in Iraq. The possible death
throes of an Iraq regime probably already armed with dangerous weapons add
further qualms.
Here is where political reality cuts in. The record shows that Americans
will support a successful near-zero-casualty war for a clear-cut cause, for
a while. Bush père pulled off such a war against explicit Iraqi aggression
that threatened the world's oil supply. The Sept. 11 attacks engendered
near-unanimous support for what turned out to be a workable war in
Afghanistan. But neither the fuzzy threat of a future potential of Iraqi
weapons of mass destruction nor the proposed "preemptive" counterattack fit
those specifications.
Rather, the appropriate political models are Harry Truman's bogged-down war
in Korea and Lyndon Johnson's in Vietnam; both presidents declined to run
for re-election.
An attack on Iraq before November's congressional election would be
militarily near impossible and politically blatant. After November,
President Bush will be running for re-election. A war begun in 2003 and
continuing without clear victory for a year or more - as is possible if not
probable - would invoke the Korean and Vietnamese precedents. Perhaps that
is why in recent days the president has backed off his earlier rhetoric,
remarking that he might not make a decision this year, and that he is still
listening to the debate.
The writer is an economist, defense analyst and former official in the U.S.
executive and legislative branches.
Back to Peace Talk Index, Autumn, 2002